Monday, November 30, 2009

Q4 Forecast

End of the year forecasts for major metrics

1) Auto sales break 10.5 million mark, pointing to a second month of sustained demand after expiration of C4C.
2) Payroll losses will come down to 100,000, while unemployment rate climbs down to 10 % in November, and 9.9% for end of 2009
3) Retail sales will continue to exceed the YonY comparisons, and GDP growth of 3.5 % in the last quarter
4) Job creation to begin from Q1 (positive payroll numbers), earlier than expected
5) Equity markets will continue to lead the way, as the signs of a firm recovery begin to strengthen
6) Foreclosure rates will start declining from Q1-2010, and follow the path of credit card delinquencies which are already on the way down in Q4 2009.
7) Back to the old normal